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From the central to the local, a "order defense war" has started!
Published:
2022-12-08
The fourth quarter is usually the traditional peak season for China's foreign trade. However, affected by the epidemic and the downturn of the world economy this year, China's foreign trade, especially its exports, seems to be "not in peak season".
The fourth quarter is usually the traditional peak season for China's foreign trade. However, affected by the epidemic and the downturn of the world economy this year, China's foreign trade, especially its exports, seems to be "not in peak season".
According to official data, the year-on-year growth rate of China's total import and export value in RMB in October was 6.9%, falling for three consecutive months. In dollar terms, China's total import and export value fell 0.4% year on year in October, much lower than the 3.4% growth rate in September. Among them, exports fell 0.3% year on year, while the growth rate in September was 5.7%.
At present, from the central to the local, a "order defense war" has begun.
Where did the order go?
Foreign trade largely depends on the temperature of the international market. At present, China's foreign trade, especially export, is facing a major problem, which is the weakening of foreign demand and insufficient orders.
Shu Jueting, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China, said frankly that the current shortage of foreign demand has become a "prominent challenge". China Council for the Promotion of International Trade also said that the problem of insufficient orders of enterprises was particularly prominent, and the import and export of foreign trade was under further pressure in the fourth quarter.
Why are there fewer orders?
Mao Zhenhua, co director of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, believes that the current global economy is in a downturn, the inflation level in developed economies such as the United States and Europe is still high, and the purchasing power of residents is restrained. In addition, the production capacity and supply capacity of other economies are gradually restored, so overseas demand for Chinese goods is not as strong as before.
In addition, affected by the epidemic, it is difficult for Chinese foreign trade enterprises to attend various overseas exhibitions in a timely manner, which also restricts enterprises to expand new customers and undertake new orders to some extent.
Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that offline display of goods and communication and negotiation are indispensable for foreign trade enterprises to guarantee and compete for orders. At present, the European and American people are in financial straits due to high inflation, which seems to affect demand, but for Chinese goods with high cost performance ratio, it is a great opportunity to occupy the market. At this time, only by truly "going global" can enterprises seize opportunities and win initiative.
Order defense, fight!
Order is very important for foreign trade enterprises. To stabilize foreign trade is to stabilize orders to a large extent. In response to the problem of insufficient orders, China has been "tailoring the remedy to the case".
——Continuously cultivate surrounding markets
At present, ASEAN is China's largest trading partner. According to official data, the total trade value between China and ASEAN in the first 10 months of this year increased by 15.8% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade in the same period, of which the growth rate of China's exports to ASEAN was as high as 22.7%.
Recently, leaders of China and ASEAN countries have jointly announced the launch of negotiations on the China ASEAN Free Trade Area version 3.0. China revealed that the two sides will conduct negotiations around areas of common interest such as digital economy and green economy. In addition, China also said that it would continue to help ASEAN members in need to improve the implementation capacity of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that, against the background of escalating geopolitical tensions, weak demand in European and American markets is likely to continue next year, which will impact China's foreign trade. Make full use of RCEP, further release the cooperation potential with ASEAN, the largest trading partner, and help to hedge the adverse impact of weak European and American markets on China's foreign trade.
——Vigorously support cross-border e-commerce
During the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce played an important role in stabilizing China's foreign trade. According to official data, the import and export scale of China's cross-border e-commerce in 2021 will be about 1.92 trillion yuan, up 18.6% year on year.
Last month, China's cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones were expanded again, with a total of more than 100. The number of countries that have signed memorandums of understanding on e-commerce cooperation with China has recently increased to 27.
Many large foreign trade provinces are also strengthening their support for cross-border e-commerce. Shandong recently said that it is necessary to sort out the list of backbone foreign trade enterprises with sufficient orders in hand and strong driving force, so as to ensure normal production and guarantee the performance of the enterprises; Support enterprises to launch well-known platforms such as Amazon, Alibaba International Station and eBay, and expand the export of local products.
——Assist enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions
According to the data of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, the pilot approval of the first batch of 15 overseas trade and economic exhibition projects from November 2022 to February 2023 has been completed, which are distributed in 8 countries, including Germany and the United States, involving textile, auto parts, sports goods, electronics, consumer goods and other fields. Most of these fields involve China's advantageous export products, which will enable relevant enterprises to obtain real benefits in export.
Wei Jianguo said that with the gradual release of the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth, China's foreign trade growth in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to achieve a small increase.
There are still many favorable conditions for foreign trade
Recently, the year-on-year growth rate of China's foreign trade has declined month by month. Wei Jianguo believed that the decline in foreign trade growth in a single month does not mean that China's foreign trade is facing difficulties. On the contrary, there are still many favorable conditions for China's foreign trade to maintain stable and healthy development.
First, external demand is "medium and organic". At present, the world economy is in a downturn as a whole, inflation in developed economies such as Europe and the United States is still high, and people's purchasing power is affected to some extent. This may seem to restrain external demand, but it is actually a rare market opportunity for Chinese goods with high cost performance ratio.
A number of Chinese export products with traditional advantages and high international recognition, such as textiles, bags and electronic products, will welcome a good opportunity for export.
Secondly, the vitality of private enterprises is further highlighted. According to official data, the import and export of private enterprises in the first 10 months of this year was 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14.4% year on year, accounting for 50.4% of China's total foreign trade, 2.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, the export of private enterprises was 11.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, 6 percentage points higher than China's export growth in the same period.
Most private enterprises in China have rich market experience and strong innovation ability. The rapid growth of imports and exports of private enterprises will provide strong support for China's stable foreign trade.
Wei Jianguo said that, based on the above two favorable conditions, it is expected that China's foreign trade growth in the fourth quarter is still expected to achieve a small increase.
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