The high-quality development of China's foreign trade has accelerated the dividends of RCEP, bringing new impetus to foreign trade



The high-quality development of China's foreign trade has accelerated the dividends of RCEP, bringing new impetus to foreign trade

Beijing, August 10 news (reporter Zhang Shengqi) A few days ago, the General Administration of Customs released July import and export data before 2023. In the first seven months of this year, China's import and export value was 23.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4 percent year-on-year (the same below). In particular, the trade surplus was 3.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%. In dollar terms, China's import and export value in the first seven months of this year was 3.4 trillion US dollars. Among them, the trade surplus was US $489.57 billion, an increase of 3.5%.

Faced with a complex and severe external environment, how did China's foreign trade operate in the first 7 months? What are the new trends? What's the outlook? In this regard, the reporter interviewed the relevant experts.
Look at the whole: under the background of global economic and trade recession, foreign trade is generally stable
Import and export growth slowed in July, but the surplus remained high. "China's foreign trade import and export operation is stable, in line with expectations, long-term good fundamentals have not changed", Peng Bo, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that in general, in the context of the global economic and trade recession, the import and export data of various countries are generally declining, China's import and export can achieve this achievement is not easy. It reflects the strength of China's policies and China's stable position in the global supply chain industrial chain.
Overall, the three major factors of "weak external demand, low prices and high base" are still restricting the growth rate of imports and exports. Ying Xiwen, a senior researcher at the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that from the perspective of external demand, PMI of major countries in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea and ASEAN is lower, and imports and exports of South Korea, Vietnam and other countries continue to decline year-on-year; From the price point of view, the global commodity prices in July last year were still at a high level, leading to a large year-on-year decline in major traded goods this month, dragging down the import and export amount; From the base point of view, China's export growth rate in July last year was 18.0%, the absolute volume is the second highest in the whole year, and the high base has a greater impact on the decline of export growth.
Look at the market: RCEP dividend brings new impetus to foreign trade
It is worth mentioning that from the cumulative two-year average growth rate in July and January to July, the export growth of China to emerging markets has been outstanding in the past two years, of which "a large increase in Africa, a warm increase in Latin America, and a small increase in ASEAN", which is the result of China's export diversification through the "Belt and Road" and RCEP in recent years.
Since RCEP officially took effect for the Philippines on June 2, all 15 RCEP members have completed the entry into force procedures and implemented tariff concessions to each other, and the agreement has entered a new stage of full implementation.
According to media reports, a few days ago, at the Certificate of Origin examination and Approval center of the RCEP pilot Innovation test base in Qingdao, Shandong Province, customs officers issued an RCEP certificate of origin for a batch of 5.6 tons of container liquid bags exported to the Philippines. With this certificate, enterprises can reduce the import tariff of more than 2,000 yuan when importing this batch of goods in the Philippines. In the Guangxi Liugong large excavator assembly workshop, workers are stepping up assembly operations, this master control valve imported from Japan and South Korea is a necessary part of the production of excavators. Under the RCEP policy dividend, the price of parts has been reduced by 300 to 500 yuan per unit on average.
"RCEP reduces tariff levels and bypasses trade barriers in some countries through rules of origin, which is very beneficial for Chinese companies to explore overseas markets." Peng Bo said that in the long run, the full implementation of RCEP will help promote the better development and growth of the regional economy, help stabilize the growth of regional trade, and enhance the ability to resist interference from outside the region.
While helping foreign trade enterprises to "go global", relevant departments such as the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs are also supporting overseas exhibition marketing by holding a series of important exhibitions such as the Import Expo, the Canton Fair and the Service Trade Fair, and increasing the development of overseas markets. The reporter learned that the sixth CIIE will be held offline in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, 2023. So far, more than 50 countries have confirmed their participation, covering least developed, developing and developed countries.
Recently, Li Xinggan, Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, revealed at the press conference on business work and operation in the first half of 2023 that the next step of the Ministry of Commerce will form a policy joint force with various departments around the country to promote foreign trade stability and quality, promote the acceleration of visa processing and the resumption of international routes, continue to help enterprises stabilize orders and expand the market, and ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
Looking at the future: China's foreign trade is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality growth
Looking ahead to the next stage, Peng Bo pointed out that on the one hand, it is still facing difficult challenges, and on the other hand, it is necessary to see more opportunities for continuous growth. China's foreign trade is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality growth.
Lu Daliang, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, also said that he felt pressure and confidence in the trend of foreign trade in the second half of the year. At present, inflation in major developed economies is still at a high level, geopolitical conflicts continue, short-term external demand is picking up, lack of momentum, and China's foreign trade is still facing greater pressure to stabilize growth, but at the same time, we must also see that China's economy has strong resilience, great potential, long-term good, and the fundamentals have not changed. With the continuous development of a series of policy measures, we have the confidence, foundation and conditions to achieve the goal of promoting stability and improving quality of imports and exports.
Ying Xiwen analysis, with the high base effect gradually fading, the main commodity prices began to stabilize, and the effect of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the early stage is gradually reflected, it is expected that exports and imports in July or have reached the largest decline in the year, and the decline is expected to narrow in August.